One of the most common questions I hear from people approaching retirement is this:
“Do I have enough to retire?”
Most people are really asking, What’s my number?
And I get why. A single number feels comforting. It feels clear.
But here’s the truth: there is no one-size-fits-all retirement number.
What matters isn’t hitting a magic dollar amount. What matters is whether your savings, income sources, and lifestyle can work together over time — even when things don’t go exactly as planned.
If you prefer to watch instead of read, I walk through this exact example in more detail in my YouTube video below.
Let me show you what I mean using an example couple, Dave and Maria. (They’re hypothetical, not real clients.)
Meet Dave and Maria
Dave is 65 and recently retired from his career as an engineer.
Maria is 63, works as a teacher earning about $100,000 a year, and plans to retire in two years.
Together, they’ve saved about $3 million across:
- 401(k)s and IRAs
- A Roth IRA
- A taxable brokerage account
- About $50,000 in cash
They’ve done everything “right.”
But their big question is still the same one most retirees ask:
Can we maintain our lifestyle without worrying about running out of money?
Step 1: Define the Lifestyle
Dave and Maria estimate they’ll need about $150,000 per year in retirement.
That covers:
- Monthly living expenses
- Healthcare
- Travel
- Time with family
This becomes their retirement income target. Without this step, everything else is guesswork.
Step 2: Identify Guaranteed Income
Dave has already started Social Security and receives about $22,000 per year.
Maria plans to claim at age 65, adding another $22,000.
Eventually, they’ll have around $50,000 per year coming in from Social Security.
That means the remaining $100,000 has to come from their portfolio.
Step 3: Make Reasonable Assumptions (and Stay Humble About Them)
For planning purposes, we assume:
- Investment returns between 5.3% and 7%, based on how each account is invested
- Inflation at 2.5%
- Longevity out to age 95
Now, here’s something I say to every client:
These assumptions will be wrong.
Markets don’t deliver steady returns. Inflation changes. Life happens.
But even imperfect assumptions help us understand the direction of the plan — and that’s what matters.
Step 4: Stress-Test the Plan
Using planning software, we test their retirement across thousands of scenarios — including market ups and downs, inflation changes, healthcare surprises, and longevity.
In their base case, Dave and Maria’s plan shows about an 90% probability of success.
That doesn’t mean perfection.
It means that most of the time, their savings and Social Security can support their lifestyle.
Now let’s see what happens when we change a few things.
Scenario 1: Higher Spending
What if Dave and Maria decide to spend $20,000 more per year — maybe for travel or a hobby or a mortgage on a second home?
Their probability of success drops to about 74%.
Their plan is not likely to fail — but they’re more exposed if markets struggle.
Scenario 2: Retiring Earlier
What if Maria retires today instead of waiting two more years?
That means:
- Two fewer years of salary
- Two more years of portfolio withdrawals
Their probability of success drops to around 68%.
This is a powerful reminder that retirement timing matters, sometimes more than people realize.
Scenario 3: A Market Downturn Early in Retirement
Now let’s test a tougher situation.
What if their investments lose 5% per year for the first two years of retirement?
This is where things get risky. Early losses combined with withdrawals can seriously damage a portfolio — something called sequence of returns risk.
In this scenario, their probability of success drops to about 45% and they run the risk of outliving their portfolio.
Same savings. Same lifestyle.
Just a different order of returns.
Managing Risk, Not Predicting the Future
Here’s the good news: risk doesn’t mean helplessness.
Strategies like the bucket strategy — keeping several years of spending in cash and bonds — can reduce the need to sell stocks when markets are down. That flexibility can make a meaningful difference in outcomes.
So… Do You Have Enough to Retire?
Dave and Maria’s story shows that retirement planning isn’t about hitting a number.
It’s about:
- Understanding your spending
- Knowing your income sources
- Testing your plan against uncertainty
- And adjusting when life changes
That’s how you move from “Do we have enough?”
to “Yes — and here’s how we make it work.”
Final Thoughts
There’s no single number that guarantees a successful retirement. What matters more is understanding how your spending, income sources, and investments work together — and how resilient that plan is when life doesn’t go exactly as expected.
Dave and Maria’s example shows why retirement planning isn’t about perfection. It’s about preparation. By stress-testing different scenarios, you can see where the real risks are and make thoughtful adjustments before they become problems.
Everyone’s situation is unique. What I’ve shared here is general education, not specific advice. If you’re approaching retirement and want clarity around whether your plan can support the life you want — through good markets and bad — working with a qualified financial planner can help you make those decisions with confidence.